Matemaatika ja statistika instituut
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  • 2018/19 sügis
  • Elukestusmudelid (MTMS.02.037)

Elukestusmudelid 2018/19 sügis

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Schedule: Monday 16.15-17.45,

  • Lectures: J. Liivi 2 - 405
  • Computer Labs: J. Liivi 2 - 004

Moodle page of the course: https://moodle.ut.ee/course/view.php?id=3410

Amount of credits: 3 ECTS (EAP)

Course code: MTMS.02.037

Lecturer: Meelis Käärik (associate professor, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, University of Tartu)

Target group: master students of actuarial and financial engineering / mathematics and statistics programmes

Recommended prerequisites:

  • MTMS.01.001 Mathematical Statistics I (6 ECTS)
  • MTMS.01.011 Generalized Linear Models (6 ECTS)

Brief description: The subject will cover general theory for survival models, including:

  • survival function, its empirical estimates (Kaplan-Meier, Fleming-Harrington) and construction of confidence intervals
  • fitting most common parametric distributions to survival data;
  • Cox proportional hazards model, accelerated failure time model;
  • multistate models, introduction to continuous-time Markov chains, Cox-Markov model.

Objectives of the course: The aim of the course is to provide a systematic overview of survival models used in life insurance.

Learning outcomes: By the end of the course a participant

  • understands the concept of main functions used in survival analysis (survival function, hazard function, cumulative hazard, etc);
  • knows most important survival models;
  • can describe systems with several states in terms of Markov chains and estimate its transition probabilities.

Final assessment: non-differentiated (pass, fail)

Requirements to be met for final assessment: At least 60% of home assignments done.

Recommended study materials:

  1. Tableman, M. & Kim, J.S. (2003). Survival Analysis Using S - Analysis of Time-To-Event Data. Chapman & Hall / CRC.
  2. Meira-Machado, L., de Una-Alvarez, J., Cardarso-Suarez, C. & Andersen, P.K. (2009). Multi-state models for the analysis of time to event data. Statistical methods in medical research, 18(2), 195--222.
  3. Hougaard, P. (2012). Analysis of multivariate survival data. Springer.

Additional information: Meelis Käärik (meelis.kaarik@ut.ee)

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